If you are planning to buy, invest or move up to a more expensive home, today’s real estate market can be a dream come true. We created this section of the site to keep track of just a few of the predictions of just how long this down market might last. Please keep in mind that these articles look at the housing market on a national level.
Mad Money's Jim Cramer on the Chris Matthews Show
Mad Money’s Jim Cramer was on the Chris Matthews show on 6/22/08. At the end of each show, Chris Matthews asks his guests to tell him something he doesn’t know. Jim said the following:
“I’ve been viciously negative about housing to the point where the National Association of Realtors did a letter writing campaign to get me fired because I said on the Today Show I guarantee that your house would lose value about nine months ago. I AM NOW GUARANTEEING THIS . . . NINE MONTHS FROM NOW, YOU WILL REGRET IF YOU HAVEN’T BOUGHT A HOUSE. Totally contrary view. Housing will bottom nine months from now.”
Chris Matthews: “It will bottom in nine months?”
Jim Cramer: “Yes it will.”
Matthews: “So, you don’t buy until nine months from now?”
Cramer: “Right. But then you’ve got to start thinking about it because were not building . . . we’re building one fourth of the number of houses we were building two years ago and we are a great growth country and people will need homes again.”
The last time Jim Cramer made a notable housing market prediction was almost nine months ago when he appeared on the Today show with Matt Lauer. At that time, Cramer was very negative on the real estate market across the country. Cramer was however somewhat positive on a few very select markets. He mentioned Montgomery County in Maryland specifically as being one of those real estate markets where it may be safe to purchase a home.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Predictions
Fanniemae.com - Economics & Mortgage Market AnalysisAugust 2008 - "Home sales fell again in June, but were in line with our expectations. ... We expect single-family housing starts to fall by nearly 40 percent and total home sales to decline by about 14 percent in 2008. We expect that the bottom in sales activity will occur late this year and that we should see sustained modest gains beginning in 2009. The total number of unsold homes remains near record levels and the number of vacant homes for sale remains high. ..."June 2008 - “The housing market continues to weaken. … We expect single-family housing starts to fall by nearly 40 percent and total home sales to decline by 18 percent in 2008. That said, the recent uptick in the Pending Sales Index is a probable indicator that the decline is slowing and the bottom is approaching. We expect housing starts to stabilize near the end of the year with sustained but modest gains beginning in 2009. …”
Freddiemac.com - Office of the Chief Economist, Economic and Housing Market Outlook, Major Economic IndicatorsAugust 2008 - This report seems to confirm what Fannie Mea is predicting. The number of homes sold in the 2nd quarter of this year ended slightly lower than expected. However, the prediction is the number of homes sold will rise begining in the 4th quarter of this year and continue to rise through all of 2009.To view the current report, click here.June 2008 - This report predicts that the total number of homes sold has already bottomed as of the second quarter of 2008. The number of home sales will slowly rise starting in the third quarter of 2008 and continue to rise through all of 2009.